A politician whose term technically expired last September,
HSM has recently become unhinged in the numerous interviews he has given. His
odd behavior has recently become a concern as he has spoken erratically and,
seemingly, without a filter. In one interview, he railed at unknown Somalis abroad equipped
with laptops who pen articles against “Somalia” with the “four words of
English” they had learned. He has equated criticizing the country of Somalia with
opposing his government. Moreover, he juxtaposed these nefarious figures abroad
with the Somalis in the country who carry guns and fight the government. He
fails to acknowledge the hundreds of Somalis from the diaspora who occupy key
positions in his own government.
Then, there was the time he welcomed the election of Donald
Trump and said positive things about him. When the interviewer reminded him
that the new U.S. president-elect lambasted Somalis in Minnesota, HSM drew a
distinction between the Somalis in America and their brethren in Somalia.
“Trump said nothing negative about the Somalis here,” he gloated.
At any rate, the possible re-election of HSM is strong. In a normal
democratic country, the Somali president’s abysmal record for the last four
years would have guaranteed his ultimate defeat. But, Somali elections are not one
man, one vote. The parliament will select the new president, which is a process
HSM has wanted all along since his election in 2012.
Several years ago, a prominent government official revealed
two things: There would not be direct elections in 2016, and that HSM was categorically
“the most corrupt man in Somalia.” This official, who was appointed by none
other than the president himself, has the jurisdiction to investigate his boss,
HSM. Unfortunately, he is only interested in preserving his position and not
rocking the boat.
Why is HSM
likely to be reelected?
There are
several reasons that might help his reelection:
1.
HSM
has stashed sufficient money to bribe many legislators in order to get their
votes. He did it in 2012 and he is likely to do it again. This man has been
hoarding money for the last few years and, in essence, has a war chest that
defies logic. These funds are not from his own pocket, but rather public funds diverted
from government projects and monies from business conglomerates. It is not
clear how much money he has for the election, but people close to him posit
astronomical numbers—many say about $300k per vote—to guarantee his election.
What is not clear is how many foreign governments are willing to invest millions
in this presidential election? Countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and
Turkey are expected to play a major role in the process, as well as neighboring
countries. The Gulf factor is expected to be crucial. Some Gulf countries have
not shied from dispensing cash to have their man elected. Moreover, there is no
truth in the reports that HSM’s second wife, whose house caught fire and was gutted
last week, lost $30,000,000 cash in that dubious incident. It is one of the
tabloid news items circulating in Mogadishu at this critical juncture in the
country’s history.
2.
There
are too many presidential candidates, many from the diaspora, and almost all of
them know they have no chance of unseating HSM. The number of the candidates is
so staggering that the joke now is not who is running for president, but who is
not. There are former presidents, former prime ministers, former ministers,
former or current heads of regional governments, a former speaker of
parliament, and a few professionals. Many are in the competition to bolster
their resumes. Some are there to be in the limelight. Others are simply failed
politicians who are committed to resurrecting their images. Unlike the
opposition in Gambia’s recent elections in which they all united against the
sitting president, Somali presidential candidates are unlikely to present a
united front. Each wants to do what is best only for him. Yes, they are all men.
The only female candidate withdrew from the race last week and faded with
barely a sound. She was never serious about
her race and spent almost all her time doing interviews with the international
media, which found her candidacy alluring. She, like her male colleagues,
rarely spent time campaigning in Somalia. She knew she had no chance, but she
got her 15 minutes of fame. She is now back in her adopted country of Finland
railing against “corruption in the presidential race.” In reality, she was no
better candidate than many of the inept male candidates she was running against.
In short, these presidential candidates’ division is a boon to HSM.
3.
The
Mogadishu factor comes from the fact that the next president will be Hawiye.
All the talk about PM Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke unseating his boss is nothing
but cheap talk. Let me be clear: The chance of a Darod president in Mogadishu
is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. It’s a pipedream. Somalia is
not ready to elect a Darod president again. Now, the Darod, the Dir and the
Digil/Mirifle can be power brokers, but that is the extent they will play in
the election.
4.
There
is also the myth of the homogenous “international community”. Now and then, one
hears that the “International Community” wants HSM or that candidate. Not true.
There are various countries and entities that play crucial role in Somali
politics, but they are not united. Each country has its own interests to guard:
Turkey has an economic interest in the country that might be anathema to the
Emirates, and vice versa. There might be some convergence of interests among
some of these entities, but one should never assume they are all one united front.
Some of these entities might prefer the incumbent because it is simple, old
politics: Better the devil you know.
In all, I do not expect miracles from the coming presidential
elections. HSM has resoundingly failed in his first term because he has shown that
his primary interest is self-enrichment. He did little to prepare the country
for clean elections and with one man, one vote, did nothing on the provisional
constitution, and, additionally, he allowed his cronies and relatives to
control businesses, failed to bring law and order to the country, and became
indifferent to genuine reconciliation. Another term for HSM means the
continuation of unbridled corruption, bad governance, and Somalia remaining the
laughing stock of the world. However, there will always be some in the
legislature who are willing to sell their soul for the right price.
