Thursday, March 19, 2015

Will ISIS Woo Al-Shabaab into the Fold?

Boko Haram’s recent pledge of allegiance to ISIS, the first by a Sub-Saharan jihadi group, has raised questions about another African group — Al-Shabaab. Will the Somali militant group follow suit and join ISIS, too?

According to recent reports, a major debate has been brewing in the radical group regarding as whether to join ISIS or not. Unlike Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab has a sizable representation of foreign jihadists in its rank and file. Moreover, Al-Shabaab is an official affiliate of Al-Qaeda central.
One faction within Al-Shabaab, led by the new emir, Ahmed Diriye “Abu Ubaidah,” wants to stick with Al-Qaeda. This group perhaps is turned off by ISIS’ flamboyant leader, Abubakar al-Baghdadi, and his claims of being the caliph of all Muslims. Moreover, many Salafi scholars have also condemned ISIS followers as heretics.

However, another faction, spearheaded by Mahad Karate, the deputy emir, wants to abandon Al-Qaeda and join ISIS due to Al-Qaeda’s shrinking role — if not absence — from the theater of global jihad. Proponents of this faction argue that Al-Qaeda has done little to help Al-Shabaab and in fact criticized Al-Shabaab leaders for their constant bickering and the mistreatment of foreign jihadists. In essence, Al-Qaeda is seen by some members as meddlesome. To this camp, ISIS is the real deal because it is fully involved in jihad, controls territory, and is the main narrative of global jihad. Most of all, ISIS is loaded with funds. Furthermore, unconfirmed reports suggest that some foreign jihadists in Al-Shabaab, who are sympathetic toward ISIS, have been threatened by the pro Al-Qaeda group through a series of text messages.
Al-Shabaab’s internal debate about ISIS is a products of the following recent developments:

1.      The group has been beset by dissent, loss of key leaders, and a spate of defections. The militant group is essentially suffering from a leadership crisis and, hence, is seeking outside answers. Ahmed Abdi Godane, the late emir of the group, was forceful enough to guide the movement to Al-Qaeda partly because he had been to Afghanistan and experienced jihad as exemplified by Bin Laden and his followers. It was Godane and a few Afghan jihad veterans who steered Al-Shabaab to Al-Qaeda when some of their Somali colleagues were reluctant to do so. Godane has been replaced by Ahmed Diriye “Abu Ubaidah”, who, though committed to Al-Qaeda, lacks charisma and much influence in the movement. The real power lies in his deputy, Mahad Karate, who is said to be committed to reinventing Al-Shabaab by aligning it with the new phenomenon of ISIS. This could also be a desperate attempt by Karate and his minions to make Al-Shabaab, once again, relevant in global jihad.

2.      Al-Shabaab has been in retreat for the last few months. According to the AU Special Representative to Somalia, Ambassador Maman Sidikou, Al-Shabaab has lost 80% of the territory it once controlled. While ISIS is on the rise in the global jihad, Al-Shabaab has been in decline. Al-Shabaab is now cornered in the Lower Juba in the south of Somalia and has shifted to a hit-and-run strategy. The group has been degraded but not completely defeated. In a way, it is like a slowly dying beast—weakened yet still capable of inflicting considerable damage. Accordingly, the possibility of merging with ISIS may be seen by some members as a lifeline.

3.      The recent events in Yemen have brought more bad news to Al-Shabaab as the dynamics of power shifted when the Houthis — a Shiite movement — captured Sana’a, the capital, and Al-Bayda, two Al-Qaeda strongholds in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Al-Shabaab’s ties to Al-Qaeda central have been primarily through the channels of AQAP, which is now in an existential war with the Houthis.
What would it portend if Al-Shabaab were to join ISIS?

Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to ISIS is ambiguous. Is it purely a propaganda ploy by the Nigerian group? Does it mean the group will get financial, arms, and technical assistance from ISIS? There are reports that ISIS has trained some members of Boko Haram and has actually lent a helping hand in improving Boko Haram’s Twitter account.
For Al-Shabaab, an ISIS alliance might bring a financial windfall as the militant group has lost its main source of revenue, the coastal city of Baraawe. The group can also benefit from an infusion of fighters diverted from ISIS. Because getting to Syria and Iraq is becoming increasingly difficult for jihadists who want to join ISIS, Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram might be the immediate beneficiaries of that jihadi pipeline. In fact, the ISIS spokesman, Abu Mohamed al-Adnani, when welcoming Boko Haram’s allegiance, called for global jihadists to migrate to Nigeria and join Boko Haram.

Al-Shabaab, once a main attraction for global jihadists, might suddenly become reinvigorated if it joins ISIS. The Somali outfit at least has one colorful ally in ISIS, the notorious executioner Mohammad Emwazi, better known as “Jihadi John”, who sparked global outrage by beheading several Western hostages held by ISIS. It has been reported that he admires Al-Shabaab and allegedly tried to join the group on a safari trip in Tanzania but was foiled by the authorities. More importantly, “Jihadi John” had shown videotapes of Al-Shabaab to some of ISIS’ Western hostages. Given the precarious nature of Al-Shabaab in Somalia, an alliance with ISIS may not be out of the equation.
(Reprinted with permission from Sahan Journal, March 19, 2015).

Sunday, March 15, 2015

A German Mom's Anguish Over Her Son in Somalia

Michaela Muller is weak and plagued by constant worry, sleepless nights, and depression.

“Doctors can’t help me,” she says.
She and her husband are in their home country, Germany, but their son Andreas (“Andy”) Martin Muller, his Eritrea-born wife, and their nine-year-old daughter, are still missing after disappearing in the summer of 2011. They are believed to be in Somalia.

Andy converted to Islam in 1999 and is believed to be with the Al-Shabaab group.
“My son went to Somalia for his daughter’s sake,” insists Michaela. “He wanted her to live in a Muslim society.”

Michaela does not believe her son is a terrorist. “He is not the fighting type,” she says, “and has never even touched a weapon. He wouldn’t kill a fly.” Before Andy left for Germany in 2011, he was a clean-living, law-abiding citizen with no criminal record and no history of violence.
However, in 2012 and 2013, Andy was the subject of two massive police hunts in Kenya and Uganda, and was reported to have sneaked in these countries to engage in acts of terror. “The Kenyan police has cause to believe that this man [Andy] has information about the activities of Al-Shabaab,” a police statement said.

Then, in the fall of 2013, after Al-Shabaab’s devastating attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenyan police named Andy and British-born Samantha Lewthwaite, best known as “The White Widow,” as their main suspects. The police would later backtrack from that assessment. Four gunmen were involved in the attack and they all died. The Kenyan authorities also arrested and charged four Somalis in Eastleigh for providing material support to the attackers. 

Andy subsequently phoned Michaela and strongly denied any involvement in the terror attack. “Mummy, it is not true,” he said. “Don’t believe it.” Moreover, according to Michaela, Andy was in Somalia on the day of the attack and had called her twice. “He was shocked,” says Michaela.
Michaela still remembers her son’s serene childhood growing up in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. “Andy played the trombone in our church until he turned 19,” she reminisces. He had an upbeat personality and “to everybody, he was the most loved, sweet little boy.” Michaela says he always had the best grades in school.   

Andy’s conversion to Islam sent shockwaves through the family, especially as he had been raised in a tight-knit, Christian household. However, his parents accepted his choice of religion and were very understanding. He started calling himself Ahmed Khalid Muller and decided to leave Germany and live in a Muslim country. His parents could not understand why their son would leave his native country where many Muslims — Germans and immigrants — live together peacefully.
Sometime in September 2011, after unsuccessfully trying to emigrate to Bosnia and the United Arab Emirates, Andy entered Somalia with his wife and daughter through Kenya’s porous border. No one has heard of the family’s whereabouts. It is as they have fallen off the radar, his mother explains. It is still unclear why Andy entered Somalia and whether his intention was to settle peacefully there or pursue a darker agenda. He might be in the Lower Juba, the only region in the country where Al-Shabaab is in control.

The most heartbreaking moment for Michaela was when she spoke to her granddaughter. The little girl asked her if she could “come and see her” in Somalia. It was an emotionally wrenching phone call for Michaela who heard that her granddaughter had developed malaria pout in Somalia and was treated by a traditional medicine man with honey and plants. The thought of her grandchild living in a small village or in the bushes with no modern amenities still terrifies Michaela.

Michaela worries constantly of her son and his family. Every time a drone strikes Somalia, she becomes consumed with fear, and Andy’s continuous presence in Somalia has her in emotional handcuffs. “Since September, 2011, I have been suffering day and night,” she says. “I wait and sit holding my mobile phone, but it never rings.” She confesses that she often despairs of seeing Andy again, and doesn’t know how to deal with it. “Sometimes, I feel I should die during the night and never wake up again,” she adds.
As a child, Michaela wanted to visit Somalia: “A beautiful land, with wonderful people and the most beautiful women on the globe.” She respects and admires Islam and has read about it extensively.  She once challenged Andy on why he was defying his parents and being unkind and inconsiderate to them when Islam teaches that paradise is under the feet of mothers. His response was immediate and brutal: “You are Kaffir (infidel) — that is the difference.” Michaela knows Andy is wrong and misguided. She says her son has been brainwashed. “Al-Shabaab people have nothing to do with the wonderful religion of Islam,” she says. 

Michaela, her husband, and Andy’s friends just want him back home. “Andy holds a special place in my heart,” says Michaela. “Every day, I ask God to give me back Andy, my granddaughter — my loving little sunshine — and her mom.”