Will ISIS Woo Al-Shabaab into the Fold?

Boko Haram’s recent pledge of allegiance to ISIS, the first by a Sub-Saharan jihadi group, has raised questions about another African group — Al-Shabaab. Will the Somali militant group follow suit and join ISIS, too?

According to recent reports, a major debate has been brewing in the radical group regarding as whether to join ISIS or not. Unlike Boko Haram, Al-Shabaab has a sizable representation of foreign jihadists in its rank and file. Moreover, Al-Shabaab is an official affiliate of Al-Qaeda central.

One faction within Al-Shabaab, led by the new emir, Ahmed Diriye “Abu Ubaidah,” wants to stick with Al-Qaeda. This group perhaps is turned off by ISIS’ flamboyant leader, Abubakar al-Baghdadi, and his claims of being the caliph of all Muslims. Moreover, many Salafi scholars have also condemned ISIS followers as heretics.

However, another faction, spearheaded by Mahad Karate, the deputy emir, wants to abandon Al-Qaeda and join ISIS due to Al-Qaeda’s shrinking role — if not absence — from the theater of global jihad. Proponents of this faction argue that Al-Qaeda has done little to help Al-Shabaab and in fact criticized Al-Shabaab leaders for their constant bickering and the mistreatment of foreign jihadists. In essence, Al-Qaeda is seen by some members as meddlesome. To this camp, ISIS is the real deal because it is fully involved in jihad, controls territory, and is the main narrative of global jihad. Most of all, ISIS is loaded with funds. Furthermore, unconfirmed reports suggest that some foreign jihadists in Al-Shabaab, who are sympathetic toward ISIS, have been threatened by the pro Al-Qaeda group through a series of text messages.

Al-Shabaab’s internal debate about ISIS is a products of the following recent developments:

1.      The group has been beset by dissent, loss of key leaders, and a spate of defections. The militant group is essentially suffering from a leadership crisis and, hence, is seeking outside answers. Ahmed Abdi Godane, the late emir of the group, was forceful enough to guide the movement to Al-Qaeda partly because he had been to Afghanistan and experienced jihad as exemplified by Bin Laden and his followers. It was Godane and a few Afghan jihad veterans who steered Al-Shabaab to Al-Qaeda when some of their Somali colleagues were reluctant to do so. Godane has been replaced by Ahmed Diriye “Abu Ubaidah”, who, though committed to Al-Qaeda, lacks charisma and much influence in the movement. The real power lies in his deputy, Mahad Karate, who is said to be committed to reinventing Al-Shabaab by aligning it with the new phenomenon of ISIS. This could also be a desperate attempt by Karate and his minions to make Al-Shabaab, once again, relevant in global jihad.

2.      Al-Shabaab has been in retreat for the last few months. According to the AU Special Representative to Somalia, Ambassador Maman Sidikou, Al-Shabaab has lost 80% of the territory it once controlled. While ISIS is on the rise in the global jihad, Al-Shabaab has been in decline. Al-Shabaab is now cornered in the Lower Juba in the south of Somalia and has shifted to a hit-and-run strategy. The group has been degraded but not completely defeated. In a way, it is like a slowly dying beast—weakened yet still capable of inflicting considerable damage. Accordingly, the possibility of merging with ISIS may be seen by some members as a lifeline.

3.      The recent events in Yemen have brought more bad news to Al-Shabaab as the dynamics of power shifted when the Houthis — a Shiite movement — captured Sana’a, the capital, and Al-Bayda, two Al-Qaeda strongholds in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Al-Shabaab’s ties to Al-Qaeda central have been primarily through the channels of AQAP, which is now in an existential war with the Houthis.

What would it portend if Al-Shabaab were to join ISIS?

Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to ISIS is ambiguous. Is it purely a propaganda ploy by the Nigerian group? Does it mean the group will get financial, arms, and technical assistance from ISIS? There are reports that ISIS has trained some members of Boko Haram and has actually lent a helping hand in improving Boko Haram’s Twitter account.

For Al-Shabaab, an ISIS alliance might bring a financial windfall as the militant group has lost its main source of revenue, the coastal city of Baraawe. The group can also benefit from an infusion of fighters diverted from ISIS. Because getting to Syria and Iraq is becoming increasingly difficult for jihadists who want to join ISIS, Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram might be the immediate beneficiaries of that jihadi pipeline. In fact, the ISIS spokesman, Abu Mohamed al-Adnani, when welcoming Boko Haram’s allegiance, called for global jihadists to migrate to Nigeria and join Boko Haram.

Al-Shabaab, once a main attraction for global jihadists, might suddenly become reinvigorated if it joins ISIS. The Somali outfit at least has one colorful ally in ISIS, the notorious executioner Mohammad Emwazi, better known as “Jihadi John”, who sparked global outrage by beheading several Western hostages held by ISIS. It has been reported that he admires Al-Shabaab and allegedly tried to join the group on a safari trip in Tanzania but was foiled by the authorities. More importantly, “Jihadi John” had shown videotapes of Al-Shabaab to some of ISIS’ Western hostages. Given the precarious nature of Al-Shabaab in Somalia, an alliance with ISIS may not be out of the equation.

(Reprinted with permission from Sahan Journal, March 19, 2015).