Robow went to Baidoa ten days ago where he was well received. However, a few days after his announcement, the Somali federal government denounced his candidacy and castigated him as unfit to run for office, stating that the requirements for lifting his past international sanction have not yet been met.
The issue of Robow’s candidacy is as complex as Somalia’s
political landscape. It highlights the Somali government’s incompetence in
formulating and implementing policies, its failure to speak in one credible
voice, and in the dubious role played by competing interests, both foreign and
domestic.
Who’s in charge?
It’s not clear how Robow — who has been under the protection
and watchful eye of the Somali federal government security forces — left Mogadishu in a plane and landed in Baidoa, the
seat of the SW regional government, without the full knowledge of top leaders
in the federal government.
It was the Ministry of Security, not the Council of Ministers,
that issued the statement banning Robow from running for public office. The
document bears no name and no signature.
“It appears to be authentic, but poorly presented,” an
anonymous former official of the Ministry of Security told me.
Through all this, Villa Somalia, the seat of the presidency,
has remained silent. This chaotic bureaucratic bungling is common for the
current administration, and it begs the question: Who is actually in charge of
the government? We all remember the handing over of Colonel Abdikarim Qalbi-dhagax, a Somali citizen, to
Ethiopia last year and the ensuing chaos of who was to blame for the debacle.
For the past few days, the government has been in damage
control mode. Prime Minister Hassan Kheyre has vowed to investigate the Robow matter.
Why Prime Minister Kheyre did not initially object to Robow’s candidacy is
puzzling. It could be due to domestic pressure from certain groups, an issue we
will address later. Being reactive rather than proactive has been the norm for
the current Somali government.
Competing interestsCompeting foreign and domestic interests are at odds in Robow’s case.
The U.S. continues to play a major role in Somalia’s war against Al-Shabaab. The country had placed a $5 million bounty on the head of Robow and his former colleagues in the terror group. Last year, American officials were intimately involved in Robow’s surrender to the Somali government and the terms of his protection and safety in Mogadishu.
The Americans must have been in the loop regarding the
decision to let Robow run for office. American
officials have been meeting regularly with elders from the SW region to learn about
the possibility of the former rebel leader running for office. According to reliable
sources in the SW, the elders have supported Robow’s candidacy, believing he
would be an agent of change, especially in ameliorating security conditions in
their region. They came out of these meetings, believing Robow had the blessing
of the U.S.
It is not inconceivable for the U.S. to endorse former
militant leaders to become part of the political process. It happened in
Afghanistan, with such leaders as Hikmatyar, Rabbani, and Haqqani, as well as
in Iraq, with the likes of Muqtada al-Sadr. It also happened in Somalia, when Sheikh
Sharif, the former leader of the Union of the Islamic Courts, was captured and released,
and later became President of Somalia. And then there is the case of Ahmed
Madobe, the former rebel leader, who once was the number two man in Al-Shabaab,
and has been the President of Jubbaland State for the past six years.
Perhaps the U.S. views Robow as someone who can bring
stability to the volatile SW region, where al-Shabaab is mostly in control. He
might be a better alternative than Sharif Hassan, the current leader of the
region. Robow may know how to deal with Al-Shabaab because he is well-versed in
their tactics and inner workings. He also has one advantage: most of the foot
soldiers of Al-Shabaab belong to his Rahanweyn clan.
The U.S. has security interests in the SW; it uses the
Ballidoogle airfield to combat Al-Shabaab. Recently, a North Carolina company
was awarded a $12 million-dollar to upgrade and expand the airfield, which in
the future might serve as an alternative to the American base in Djibouti.
Is the U.S. against Robow’s candidacy? It doesn’t seem so because
the issue of his candidacy, as outlined above, has been discussed with Somali
federal leaders and SW elders for a long time.
Where do neighboring
countries (Ethiopia and Kenya) stand on Robow?
It is difficult to gauge where Ethiopia stands. The current
regime in Addis Ababa, under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, may
be neutral on Robow’s candidacy because it has more pressing internal issues,
such as ethnic violence and regional unrest. The previous regime before Ahmed,
however, was more attuned to supporting and bolstering President Sharif Hassan.
It may be that the nation’s foreign policy will not change direction
drastically and that Addis Ababa might be apprehensive about having Robow lead
an important, strategic, and neighboring Somali regional state, such as the
South West.
On the other hand, Ethiopia may not see Robow or his former
Al-Shabaab group, as a major threat. Ethiopia and Al-Shabaab continue to
coexist peacefully. Al-Shabaab does not target Ethiopia nor does it engage in terrorist
acts inside Ethiopia, and the Ethiopian forces deliberately avoid engaging in battles
with Al-Shabaab. In a way, there is an unwritten agreement between the two
entities. Sometimes, Ethiopian troops inside Somalia peacefully withdraw from
certain towns, and Al-Shabaab fighters move in, thereby resulting in no clashes
between their forces.
Kenya differs from Ethiopia because it has serious problems
with Al-Shabaab. There are constant Al-Shabaab bombings inside its territory. Moreover,
Kenya has thousands of troops inside Somalia. However, the idea that Kenya has
enough power to pressure the Somali federal government regarding Robow’s
candidacy is tenuous.
Business and tribal interests
The role of business conglomerates or tribal groups in Somali
politics cannot be underestimated. Sometimes these two groups overlap. This is
especially obvious in the Lower Shebelle region, where various clan militias
have been fighting and vying for power. Some of these clans are intricately
aligned with President Sharif Hassan, who has given them the authority to operate
checkpoints on the roads that connect Marka and Afgooye to Mogadishu.
These checkpoints are lucrative, generating millions of
dollars, and they are controlled by rogue members of the Somali national army,
business/tribal groups, or Al-Shabaab. The business and tribal groups want to
maintain the status quo, and they see Robow’s candidacy as a clear, and present
danger to their interests. Robow has vowed to close down all the checkpoints in
the SW region, especially those in the Lower Shebelle.
Some say Prime Kheyre is responding to pressure from some of
these business and tribal groups that have expressed their displeasure at
Robow’s candidacy. Some of the stakeholders of this business/tribal group
control the air transportation sector between Baidoa and Mogadishu because the
roads are not under the government’s control. The veracity of these reports
remains to be seen.
What’s next?
Next month, it will be interesting to see if Robow stays in
the race. The head of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISA) was
in Baidoa ten days ago negotiating with Robow to force him to withdraw from the
race. Robow adamantly rejected this suggestion, saying that he had met with
President Farmajo to discuss the matter. Moreover, he said his candidacy is for
the people of the SW region to decide.
The federal government is in a bind. Robow has become a
celebrity due to Mogadishu’s decision to bar him from running for office. The
NISA delegation that met him were confronted by armed people willing to defend
the former rebel group. Robow has told some of the SW elders he is confounded
by a leadership that can not speak with one voice. It is the same federal government
that has given him a diplomatic passport to travel to Saudi Arabia for a pilgrimage
and gave him an official Interpol Clearance letter.
The current president of the SW, Sharif Hassan, is reveling in
the political quagmire surrounding Robow’s candidacy because he does not want
elections to take place in November. Any delay in the elections is a sure
extension of his term. There are also other reports he may not be a candidate.
There are ten members of the Federal Parliament in Mogadishu
from the SW region who are candidates for the President of the SW. Former
president Hassan Sheikh and his opposition group have their candidate in Farkeeto,
the former Finance Minister. Some in the federal government have an alternative
candidate other than Robow: Abdiaziz Hassan “Lafta Gareen,” a parliamentarian. The
head of NISA, who has resigned, is also a possible candidate. The current
president of the SW, Sharif Hassan, is reveling with the political quagmire
surrounding Robow’s candidacy because he does not want elections taking place
in November. Any delay of the elections is a sure extension of his term.
Robow has been a quick hand in politics. His candidacy has
mobilized a segment in the SW that is disenchanted with the way the region is
governed. He has called for women to be included in the Election Commission. His
speeches have tapped into the sentiments of those who want security in their
region and see any federal interference in their affairs as an affront.
“It makes no sense that Ali Dheere (an Al-Shabaab spokesman)
wants to chase me in the bushes and PM Kheyre doesn’t want me in Baidoa,” Robow
said. Both men he mentioned belong to the same clan.
Regardless of what happens, Robow’s candidacy is a nightmare
for the SW region, which has many highly qualified politicians with no history
of blood on their hands. It was a coup for the Somali people to see one of the top
leaders of Al-Shabaab defect and denounce his old colleagues, but to reward him
with political leadership is a travesty. One only has to look at the example of
Ahmed Madobe, also a former rebel leader, who hasn’t been able to drive
Al-Shabaab from Jubbaland. Besides,
don’t these former terrorists ever ask for forgiveness from the Somali people
and the families of the people they had killed?
The ideal situation is to require former terrorist leaders
like Robow to take part in rehabilitation programs before they can assume
office. It would be wise to introduce a requirement that all Somali leaders with
a violent past be banned from running for or holding office until they prove
they have been rehabilitated. Until that happens, Somalia will be populated
with dubious characters in its political landscape—men like Robow, Madobe, and
some former warlords in parliament with a similar violent past.
