The resignation of Sharif Hassan Aden, former president of
Somalia’s South West (SW) regional state, was supposed to ease tensions during
the presidential elections. However, as Somalis aptly say, “Ayax teg, eelna reeb” (The locust flew
away, but it left hardship). There has been turmoil in the region as the
elections, which were supposed to take place on November 17, 2018, have been
postponed, for the second time, to
December 5. There is a growing fear that the new scheduled date may yet be put
off due to fear of procedural roadblocks and heavy-handedness on the part of
the federal government.
The federal government and local SW politicians agreed on one
thing: the removal of then-president, Aden. Unfortunately, afterward, discord
emerged as to who should be selected for president. The Federal Government of Somalia
(FGS) in Mogadishu has clear goals: It wants to install its own man as SW
president, make plans to influence the 2020 federal elections, and weaken the
regional states—a thorn in the side of the federal government.
To accomplish its goals, the FGS has been trying to influence
SW’s Electoral Commission (EC) to introduce procedural hurdles that will make
it difficult for one major presidential
candidate to legally stand for the elections. The FGS has its man in Abdiaziz
Hassan, better known as “Lafta Gareen.” He is a federal parliamentarian, an
ally of Somalia’s president, Mohamed Farmajo, and a man some critics accuse of
lacking independent streak. On the other hand, the federal government has been
trying to prevent Mukhtar Robow, a former leader of Al-Shabaab, to run for
elections.
A year ago, Robow defected from the Al-Shabaab terrorist
group and has cooperated with the federal government and its Western allies. He
was in Mogadishu under the protection of federal security services until last
month, when, with the support and the blessing of the federal government, he flew
via private plane and landed in Baidoa, the current seat of the SW regional
government. In Baidoa, he announced his candidacy for the presidency of the SW.
A few days later came the bombshell: an official, unsigned
federal letter was issued banning Robow’s candidacy. Robow and many SW
residents were blindsided by the letter and, instead of derailing his candidacy,
the letter made his popularity skyrocket. Robow was welcomed with open arms by
Baidoa residents and many of its elites. There were reports that the United
States representatives in Somalia reprimanded the FGS, demanding they ease the
pressure on Robow. Washington saw Robow’s candidacy as a better option for the
troubled SW region where Al-Shabaab controls a large swath of territory. In
short, Robow is seen by some as a political leader untainted by corruption and
someone who can bring stability to the region because he is well-versed with
the tactics and inner workings of the militant Al-Shabaab group. A group of
elders, women, intellectuals, and politicians like former speaker Mohamed
Jawari has endorsed Robow as the best candidate who can bring change to the
region.
What made the FGS change directions regarding Robow?
Perhaps, the 2020 federal presidential elections is the
reason. President Farmajo has been in office for the past two years, but he is
already gearing up for re-election. Against the backdrop of the 2020 federal
elections, President Farmajo calculated that he needed a reliable, malleable,
and loyal man who can deliver the SW votes, someone who can arm-twist, coax,
and cajole the 70 federal parliamentarians from the SW when the elections take
place in 2020. Robow, in essence, is his own man and will be interested more in
consolidating his power base than becoming a proxy for President Farmajo.
Last month, the federal government brought more than 100 SW
legislators to Mogadishu and handed each $5,000. The move angered a dozen
members of the SW’s Electoral Commission, who resigned in protest. These
resignations were a golden opportunity for the federal government to manipulate
the electoral process in favor of its man, Lafta-Gareen.
The new members of the EC have been struggling to institute
procedures for the presidential elections as they have been pressured by both the
FGS and the Acting President of the SW, Abdulkadir Sharif Sheikhuna, to find
ways to ban Robow from running for office. There is fear among federal
officials that Robow will defeat Lafta Gareen, but the EC has so far weathered
mounting pressure to bar Robow from the elections and gave him a certificate
allowing him to run for the elections. Robow
has been pardoned by President Farmajo, and he is no longer on the sanctions
list of the US and United Nations. Moreover, the $5 million bounty on his head
placed by Washington has been rescinded.
There is fear that the SW elections might lead to violence
and instability. The resignation of Aden, the former president of the SW, was
not the end of his political influence in the state. He has his supporters and
cronies still entrenched in the bureaucracy. Moreover, the new Acting
President, an ally of Aden, also wants to carve his own niche with the federal
government. Reliable sources have told me that the Acting President has been
promised he will replace his father in the federal parliament once the latter
resigns. There are credible reports that the Acting President met with members
of the EC on November 19 in violation of the rules and regulations of the electoral
process.
The federal interference in the SW elections is a
manifestation that Mogadishu does not care much about the real issues affecting
the region’s residents—lack of security, disconnect from the capital,
Mogadishu, youth unemployment, bad governance, and corruption. It is more
interested in spending millions on bribing legislators, shipping in a bullet-proof
car for Lafta Gareen, and sowing discord and divisions among clans. Mogadishu’s
attention span is limited to regional and federal elections, and it will be soon
heard from, once again, in the 2020 federal elections. In the meantime, for
many SW residents, it will be business as usual—fear of Al-Shabaab, a regional
government without a capacity, and a state president doing all the bidding for Mogadishu.
