Mukhtar Robow, the former number-two man in Al-Shabaab and a
presidential candidate in Somalia’s South West (SW) region, was arrested on
December 13, 2018, in Baidoa and transferred to the capital, Mogadishu. The
Ethiopian forces in Baidoa facilitated the arrest.
Robow’s arrest sent ripple effects among the people of the SW,
who took to the streets in protest. At least 10 people died during the riots, including
a SW parliamentarian. What are the ramifications of Robow’s arrest?
Robow’s arrest is the manifestation of a federal government
in disarray, a glaring flaw in counterterrorism policies, a cry for re-examining
the Ethiopian army’s presence in Baidoa, and the promise of a bleak future for
a country that has been expected to move forward after two decades of civil war
but instead is gradually regressing.
A Federal Government in Quandary
Mukhtar Robow became estranged from the Al-Shabaab terror
group in 2013, but waited until 2017 to surrender to the federal government. He
was reluctant to turn himself in during the regime of President Hassan Sheikh
Mohamoud (HSM) and Sharif Hassan, then-president of the SW. Robow was afraid he
would be handed over to foreign countries if he surrendered. He believed the
new President Mohamed Farmajo was a nationalist who would treat him better.
Robow surrendered last year and was under the protection of the Somali
government forces in Mogadishu. Then, this October, he was given the green
light to go to Baidoa and run for the presidency of the SW.
A few days after Robow’s announced candidacy, the federal
government issued an unsigned letter banning Robow from running for office. The
letter propelled Robow’s popularity to new heights; suddenly, the once-scorned rebel
leader became the savior of the SW. Some people in the SW supported Robow simply
out of spite for the federal government and its heavy-handedness in interfering
in the affairs of the region.
It seems that the federal government miscalculated when it allowed
Robow to come to Baidoa The government had one purpose: depose Sharif Hassan,
then president of the SW and a thorn in the side of the federal government.
Once the people of the SW rose against their then-president and banished him,
Robow became expedient. The federal government then needed a new, reliable SW
president who could help President Farmajo in the 2020 elections. Robow was too
independent and too mercurial to help Mogadishu.
The
miscalculation by the federal government to let Robow run for office was
compounded by its subsequent bungling such as pressuring the SW Electoral
Commission to delay the region’s presidential elections three times, bribing
more than 100 SW legislators, who were brought to Mogadishu and each given
$5000, and the outright bribing of local SW officials in Baidoa.
Now that Robow is in custody in Mogadishu, there are reports
that he is being pressured to withdraw from the election. There was a press
conference on Sunday, December 16, at the headquarters of the National
Intelligence and Security Services (NISA) in which Robow did not appear. There
is fear among some SW residents that he might be liquidated while in custody
and the crime be blamed on Al-Shabaab. Only two years ago, General Abdullahi
Gafow, then director of NISA, fired 1,500 intelligence agents for incompetence
and fear of possible Al-Shabaab infiltration of the agency.
Al-Shabaab as a Winner
One group that is benefiting from Robow’s arrest is
Al-Shabaab. It is rare for the federal government and Al-Shabaab to have a convergence
of interests. Robow, a target of the terror group for his betrayal, has become
persona non grata for the very government where he sought refuge. The former
Al-Shabaab leader has become a classic textbook case for wannabe Al-Shabaab
defectors.
Somewhere in Jilib, the stronghold of Al-Shabaab, the
militant leaders are laughing at the fate of Robow and the humiliations he has
suffered at the hands of the federal government. It is even more ironic for
many of the foot soldiers of the radical group, who belong to the Rahanweyn
clan, as does Robow. What once the federal government hoped for—mass defections
of the radical group after Robow’s surrender—is today becoming a pipe dream. In fact, there is
concern that many SW youth in Baidoa might be radicalized and join the terror
group.
What’s to be done
1. Robow must be released. It is true
that I opposed
his candidacy, but now that the people of the SW want him as their leader, they
should be heard. It is not the federal government’s job to pick leaders for the
region. The will of the people should be respected, even if they want a leader
with a checkered past.
2. The Ethiopian troops in Baidoa should
be withdrawn because they have proven to be a party to internal Somali
politics. This force, the supposedly Sector 3 of the African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM), is in Baidoa not to keep peace, but to further the interests
of Ethiopia. The AMISOM envoy to Somalia issued a statement in which he
declared that the African Union forces in Baidoa had nothing to do with the
arrest of Robow in Baidoa and his transfer to Mogadishu.
3. The extra-judicial arrest of Robow
shows Somalia’s need for a judiciary as he was neither indicted nor expected to
be brought before a court of law.
It is mindboggling that a
presidential candidate can be arrested and prevented from running for office
without any charges. Somali political leaders have focused more on elections
and their mechanism than on creating basic institutions—such as an independent
judiciary—that the country badly needs.
4. The federal government needs to
regain the trust and the confidence of the people in the SW by: stopping its
interference in the regional elections by installing puppets; consulting with
SW elders, women, youth and intellectuals; being mindful of what can cause or
aggravate radicalism among youth. The SW region has become a fertile ground for
Al-Shabaab’s recruitment. The current turmoil in Baidoa and the unrest after
Robow’s arrest are likely to galvanize an already messy situation.
The SW conundrum is getting murkier and sham elections are
underway, to be held on December 19. So far, five presidential candidates have
made their presentations before the SW parliament. Robow’s empty chair, the
sixth candidate, is unlikely to be occupied. The federal government is going to
attain its ultimate goal of holding the elections without Robow’s presence on
December 19, ensuring that international
observers will not attend due to the proximity of Christmas. The International
Partners of Somalia, a group of 11 countries plus AMISOM and the United
Nations, has issued a statement calling all parties to stop the use of violence
and engage in an open dialogue to resolve the SW conflict. “There should be
unified support for the agreed framework governing the election,” the statement
read, “and that all parties [must] respect the integrity of the electoral
process.” The Somali federal government is not expected to heed the advice of its
International Partners.
