Robow's Arrest: Turmoil in the South West State

Mukhtar Robow, the former number-two man in Al-Shabaab and a presidential candidate in Somalia’s South West (SW) region, was arrested on December 13, 2018, in Baidoa and transferred to the capital, Mogadishu. The Ethiopian forces in Baidoa facilitated the arrest.

Robow’s arrest sent ripple effects among the people of the SW, who took to the streets in protest. At least 10 people died during the riots, including a SW parliamentarian. What are the ramifications of Robow’s arrest?

Robow’s arrest is the manifestation of a federal government in disarray, a glaring flaw in counterterrorism policies, a cry for re-examining the Ethiopian army’s presence in Baidoa, and the promise of a bleak future for a country that has been expected to move forward after two decades of civil war but instead is gradually regressing.

A Federal Government in Quandary

Mukhtar Robow became estranged from the Al-Shabaab terror group in 2013, but waited until 2017 to surrender to the federal government. He was reluctant to turn himself in during the regime of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud (HSM) and Sharif Hassan, then-president of the SW. Robow was afraid he would be handed over to foreign countries if he surrendered. He believed the new President Mohamed Farmajo was a nationalist who would treat him better. Robow surrendered last year and was under the protection of the Somali government forces in Mogadishu. Then, this October, he was given the green light to go to Baidoa and run for the presidency of the SW.

A few days after Robow’s announced candidacy, the federal government issued an unsigned letter banning Robow from running for office. The letter propelled Robow’s popularity to new heights; suddenly, the once-scorned rebel leader became the savior of the SW. Some people in the SW supported Robow simply out of spite for the federal government and its heavy-handedness in interfering in the affairs of the region.

It seems that the federal government miscalculated when it allowed Robow to come to Baidoa The government had one purpose: depose Sharif Hassan, then president of the SW and a thorn in the side of the federal government. Once the people of the SW rose against their then-president and banished him, Robow became expedient. The federal government then needed a new, reliable SW president who could help President Farmajo in the 2020 elections. Robow was too independent and too mercurial to help Mogadishu.

The miscalculation by the federal government to let Robow run for office was compounded by its subsequent bungling such as pressuring the SW Electoral Commission to delay the region’s presidential elections three times, bribing more than 100 SW legislators, who were brought to Mogadishu and each given $5000, and the outright bribing of local SW officials in Baidoa.

Now that Robow is in custody in Mogadishu, there are reports that he is being pressured to withdraw from the election. There was a press conference on Sunday, December 16, at the headquarters of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISA) in which Robow did not appear. There is fear among some SW residents that he might be liquidated while in custody and the crime be blamed on Al-Shabaab. Only two years ago, General Abdullahi Gafow, then director of NISA, fired 1,500 intelligence agents for incompetence and fear of possible Al-Shabaab infiltration of the agency.

Al-Shabaab as a Winner

One group that is benefiting from Robow’s arrest is Al-Shabaab. It is rare for the federal government and Al-Shabaab to have a convergence of interests. Robow, a target of the terror group for his betrayal, has become persona non grata for the very government where he sought refuge. The former Al-Shabaab leader has become a classic textbook case for wannabe Al-Shabaab defectors.

Somewhere in Jilib, the stronghold of Al-Shabaab, the militant leaders are laughing at the fate of Robow and the humiliations he has suffered at the hands of the federal government. It is even more ironic for many of the foot soldiers of the radical group, who belong to the Rahanweyn clan, as does Robow. What once the federal government hoped for—mass defections of the radical group after Robow’s surrender—is  today becoming a pipe dream. In fact, there is concern that many SW youth in Baidoa might be radicalized and join the terror group.

What’s to be done

1.      Robow must be released. It is true that I opposed his candidacy, but now that the people of the SW want him as their leader, they should be heard. It is not the federal government’s job to pick leaders for the region. The will of the people should be respected, even if they want a leader with a checkered past.

2.      The Ethiopian troops in Baidoa should be withdrawn because they have proven to be a party to internal Somali politics. This force, the supposedly Sector 3 of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), is in Baidoa not to keep peace, but to further the interests of Ethiopia. The AMISOM envoy to Somalia issued a statement in which he declared that the African Union forces in Baidoa had nothing to do with the arrest of Robow in Baidoa and his transfer to Mogadishu.

3.      The extra-judicial arrest of Robow shows Somalia’s need for a judiciary as he was neither indicted nor expected to be brought before a court of law.

It is mindboggling that a presidential candidate can be arrested and prevented from running for office without any charges. Somali political leaders have focused more on elections and their mechanism than on creating basic institutions—such as an independent judiciary—that the country badly needs.

4.      The federal government needs to regain the trust and the confidence of the people in the SW by: stopping its interference in the regional elections by installing puppets; consulting with SW elders, women, youth and intellectuals; being mindful of what can cause or aggravate radicalism among youth. The SW region has become a fertile ground for Al-Shabaab’s recruitment. The current turmoil in Baidoa and the unrest after Robow’s arrest are likely to galvanize an already messy situation.

The SW conundrum is getting murkier and sham elections are underway, to be held on December 19. So far, five presidential candidates have made their presentations before the SW parliament. Robow’s empty chair, the sixth candidate, is unlikely to be occupied. The federal government is going to attain its ultimate goal of holding the elections without Robow’s presence on December 19, ensuring  that international observers will not attend due to the proximity of Christmas. The International Partners of Somalia, a group of 11 countries plus AMISOM and the United Nations, has issued a statement calling all parties to stop the use of violence and engage in an open dialogue to resolve the SW conflict. “There should be unified support for the agreed framework governing the election,” the statement read, “and that all parties [must] respect the integrity of the electoral process.” The Somali federal government is not expected to heed the advice of its International Partners.