The recent conflict between President
Hassan S. Mohamoud and Prime Minister Abdiweli Ahmed has caused a gridlock in
government operation. The prime minister did a limited and pointed reshuffle,
which involved only two cabinet ministers. The problem with this new change was
that it involved two close friends and allies of the president. The president,
sensing a declaration of war by the premier, issued a decree rescinding the
reshuffle. Some politicians and the UN Special Representative to Somalia,
Nicolas Kay, have made many attempts to mediate in the conflict between the
president and the prime minister, but to no avail.
The Somali Parliament convened twice
after more than 100 legislators attempted to introduce a motion of no
confidence in the prime minister. Supporters of the prime minister interrupted these
sessions and they were adjourned. Interestingly, Nicholas Kay recently warned
Somali legislators against accepting bribes to vote Prime Minister Ahmed out of
office, an admonishment that enraged some parliamentarians but was
well-received by others for its frankness on the state of malfeasance in Somali
politics.
Is the conflict between the president and the prime minister due to ambiguities in the provisional constitution?
While the provisional
constitution needs some heavy-duty amendments, it is not the reason why the country’s
two top leaders are at loggerheads. Furthermore, the constitution states that
the prime minister has the power to “appoint and dismiss members of the Council
of Ministers.” The president, in essence, has no business interfering how the
prime minister runs the council of ministers so long the premier does not
violate the constitution.
This endemic conflict between the
president and the prime minister is nothing new. Since 2000, the last four
presidents of the country have had major problems with their prime ministers.
Ironically, with the exception of President Abdullahi Yusuf, each president had
three prime ministers in their respective single terms. President Yusuf’s term
was unique because he had no control over Mogadishu more than half of his term
as his government was initially based in Nairobi, Kenya, and later the Somali
towns of Jowhar and Baidoa respectively.
Of the 10 prime ministers the
country has had since 2000, only two were not dismissed (Mohamed Abdi Yusuf and
Abdiweli Gaas). Oddly, these two left office after a year because the tenure of
their respective governments ended. However, the relationship, for instance,
between Gaas and President Shaikh Sharif in the final several months of their
term was marred by dysfunction, political competition, and mistrust.
The average Somali prime minister stays in office about 1.3 years.
The only one who stayed three years in office was Mohamed Ali Ghedi, under
President Yusuf. President Yusuf’s other
premier, Nur Hassan Hussein “Nur Adde,” lasted 2.3 years, a tenure so
acrimonious that it finally led to the president’s eventual retirement.
Six prime ministers stayed in office an average of 1.1 years,
and one (Mohamed Farmajo) only about seven months. Hassan Abshir and Nur Adde
were the only ones who stayed about two years and 2.3 years respectively.
Interestingly, all these prime ministers universally
complained about the head of the state trampling on the constitution and, hence,
acting as imperial president. The presidents, in turn, questioned the prime
ministers’ intransigence and tendency to act on their own. Many times, the
sitting parliament became a tool for the sitting president.
Somali President Hassan Mohamoud (l) and PM Abdiweli Ahmed
The conflicts between Somali presidents and their premiers
cannot be contributed simply to ambiguities in the constitution or a clash of
personalities. The causes lie deeper than that and can be partially explained
by the following:
1. There is the Siad Barre syndrome. Every Somali
president wants to be like the late dictator who ruled Somalia for 21 years. The
Somali word for president “Madax-Weyne” (The Big-headed) semantically does not
help the psychology of the country’s leader very much. Furthermore, the current
system is confusing. For instance, according to the constitution, the president,
as head of the state, appoints the prime minister, the head of the government,
but he cannot dismiss him; only the parliament can. The prime minister is in
charge of the Council of Ministers and, hence, the day-to-day operation of the
government. While the current president presumably
understands his constitutional powers and limitations, he has been accused of
usurping the prime minister’s powers by acting as both the president and prime
minister. For the two years he has been in power, President Mohamoud has had
two prime ministers he himself carefully and diligently selected. Comprehending the constitution is one thing,
but abiding by it is another. Prime Minister Abdiweli himself braced for
confrontation from day one. According to a source close to the prime minister,
Abdiweli told some of his supporters that he would “fight” the president and would
never be like his predecessor, Abdi Shirdon. At least the prime minister has kept
his promise because his working relationship with the president has been marred
by discord and open hostility.
2. It
is ironic that Somalia has neither an effective parliament nor the existence of
a judiciary. Since its election in 2012, the parliament has yet to legislate a
single law. In addition, according to two legislators who talked to this
writer, the going rate for buying a parliamentary vote is an astounding $1,000
and very few get a maximum of $2,000. The executive branch is mostly the one
that buys parliamentary votes to further its agenda. The Parliament is the
authority that is supposed to check and balance the executive, but it instead has
become an appendage of the former. The biggest reason legislators want to vote
out the current prime minister is the absence of they called “wada-shaqeyn”
(working together) between the president and the prime minister. “The prime
minister must go,” one parliamentarian told VOA, “simply because he cannot work
with the president.”
3. The
power structure in the country is based on an unwritten understanding between the
bigger clans. For instance, the
president and prime minister come from the two largest clans in the country, the
Hawiye and the Darod. Being a member of these two clans is not in itself enough
for being a president or prime minister; one has to come from the two largest
sub-clans of each of these two big clans (Abgaal or Habar Gidir for the Hawiye
and Marehan or Majertein for the Darod).
Somali politics was referred to, in humorous vein by one politician, as
an everlasting struggle between Tom and Jerry, the famous cartoon characters.
The two clans are constantly chasing each other and trying to outdo each other.
What this division of power creates is layers of various constituents and divided
loyalties for either the president or the premier. Many times, the interest of
one clan group may overlap the interest of the country. For the current
administration, the general elections scheduled for 2016 are creating panic and
a rush to win over new supporters among the myriad clans. It won’t come a surprise if President
Mohamoud appoints a new Majertein premier (a sub-clan of the Darod) because his
first two premiers were Marehan, another sub-clan of the Darod.
The conflicts between Somali
presidents and their prime ministers are unlikely to change until there are
viable and effective branches of the government, such as the legislature and the
judiciary which can serve as check and balance for the executive branch. Otherwise,
there is nothing much a new prime minister can do. Last year this time and shortly
before the selection of the current prime minister, Professor Afyare Abdi Elmi
astutely tweeted. “I do not know who the
next PM of Somalia will be, but I am not sure what he can really do—we need to
think of a long-term solution.”
That is unlikely to happen before
2016.
(Reprinted with permission from African Arguments, November 21, 2014).
No comments:
Post a Comment